St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-12-02 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

TBL: 54.9%

STL: 45.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.18

STL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

STL

V. Husso

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	26	2	92.9%	2.99	1	0.99
STL	V. Husso	35	31	4	88.6%	3.76	1	-0.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs STL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	1	1.67
1	STL	10	0	0.80
2	TBL	16	0	1.23
2	STL	17	0	1.42
3	TBL	11	0	0.86
3	STL	12	1	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1