Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-12-02 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 60.2%

CHI: 39.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.09

CHI: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

WSH

V. Vanecek

CHI

M. Fleury

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	V. Vanecek	30	26	4	86.7%	3.31	1	-0.69
CHI	M. Fleury	29	26	3	89.7%	3.40	2	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • WSH at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-09	CHI 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-03	WSH 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	WSH
2025-04-04	WSH 5 - 3 CHI	WSH	WSH
2024-12-17	CHI 3 - 2 WSH	CHI	CHI
2024-03-09	WSH 4 - 1 CHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	12	1	0.86
1	CHI	14	0	1.04
2	WSH	14	1	1.13
2	CHI	11	0	0.87
3	WSH	14	0	0.86
3	CHI	10	0	0.32
4	WSH	4	0	0.34
4	CHI	3	0	0.30
5	WSH	3	0	0.22
5	CHI	2	1	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8