Vegas Golden Knights at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2021-12-03 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 7 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 59.3%

VGK: 40.7%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.98

VGK: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	32	25	7	78.1%	2.88	0	-4.12
VGK	L. Brossoit	30	29	1	96.7%	2.27	0	1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • ARI at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-04-05	ARI 7 - 4 VGK	ARI	VGK
2024-02-08	ARI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-25	VGK 0 - 2 ARI	ARI	VGK
2023-01-22	ARI 4 - 1 VGK	ARI	ARI
2022-12-21	VGK 5 - 2 ARI	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	ARI	14	0.87
1	VGK	13	0.90
2	ARI	16	0.79
2	VGK	18	1.32
3	ARI	14	0.61
3	VGK	11	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 1 - 7 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1