Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2021-12-03 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 4 Calgary Flames (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 54.5%

CGY: 45.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.07

CGY: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	38	33	5	86.8%	5.09	4	0.09
CGY	Dan Vladar	36	33	3	91.7%	3.42	0	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • ANA at home vs CGY: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	19	0	1.63
1	CGY	18	0	1.09
2	ANA	9	0	0.44
2	CGY	15	0	1.37
3	ANA	15	0	1.12
3	CGY	15	2	0.99
4	ANA	3	0	0.11
4	CGY	2	0	0.07
5	ANA	2	0	0.13
5	CGY	2	2	1.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 3 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0