Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2021-12-04 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 54.6%

TBL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.12

TBL: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	22	3	88.0%	3.22	2	0.22
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	39	37	2	94.9%	5.19	1	3.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	22	0	1.92
1	TBL	12	0	0.75
2	BOS	22	1	1.86
2	TBL	11	0	0.68
3	BOS	15	0	1.08
3	TBL	14	1	1.09
4	BOS	3	0	0.33
4	TBL	4	1	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1