Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-12-04 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 6 - 5 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

Win Probability

OTT: 51.0%

COL: 49.0%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.16

COL: 3.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

COL

J. Johansson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	31	26	5	83.9%	2.20	0	-2.80
COL	J. Johansson	35	29	6	82.9%	2.96	2	-3.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-28	OTT 5 - 2 COL	OTT	COL
2026-01-08	COL 8 - 2 OTT	COL	COL
2025-03-20	OTT 1 - 5 COL	COL	OTT
2024-10-27	COL 5 - 4 OTT	COL	COL
2024-01-16	OTT 4 - 7 COL	COL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	0.79
1	COL	15	0	0.66
2	OTT	18	1	1.49
2	COL	12	0	0.81
3	OTT	10	1	0.50
3	COL	14	0	0.63
4	OTT	1	0	0.18
4	COL	2	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 6 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 4.0