Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2021-12-05 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 69.0%

CHI: 31.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.02

CHI: 2.52

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

CHI

M. Fleury

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	28	25	3	89.3%	3.91	2	0.91
CHI	M. Fleury	27	25	2	92.6%	3.90	2	1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	NYI 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	NYI
2025-12-30	CHI 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2024-12-15	CHI 5 - 3 NYI	CHI	NYI
2024-12-12	NYI 5 - 4 CHI	NYI	NYI
2024-04-02	NYI 2 - 1 CHI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	0	1.19
1	CHI	15	1	1.41
2	NYI	12	0	1.01
2	CHI	8	0	0.61
3	NYI	13	2	1.39
3	CHI	13	0	0.95
4	NYI	1	0	0.14
4	CHI	2	0	0.21
5	NYI	3	0	0.17
5	CHI	2	1	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.0 - 2.5