Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-12-05 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 51.9%

TBL: 48.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.09

TBL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

PHI

C. Hart

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	27	20	7	74.1%	1.87	1	-5.13
TBL	B. Elliott	39	38	1	97.4%	1.88	0	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	17	0	0.79
1	TBL	11	0	0.41
2	PHI	15	0	0.37
2	TBL	10	0	0.36
3	PHI	17	0	0.72
3	TBL	14	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 7 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2