Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2021-12-05 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

WPG: 58.3%

TOR: 41.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.98

TOR: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 7.1

Over 5.5: 75%

Over 6.5: 60%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	32	3	91.4%	3.91	2	0.91
TOR	Joseph Woll	41	35	6	85.4%	4.05	0	-1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	0	1.31
1	TOR	12	2	1.35
2	WPG	17	0	1.53
2	TOR	18	0	1.32
3	WPG	19	0	1.21
3	TOR	17	0	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3