Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-12-05 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 41.9%

CGY: 58.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.85

CGY: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

VGK

R. Lehner

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	25	23	2	92.0%	1.90	1	-0.10
CGY	J. Markstrom	28	25	3	89.3%	3.42	3	0.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • VGK at home vs CGY: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	CGY
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	0.78
1	CGY	11	0	0.40
2	VGK	17	1	1.21
2	CGY	12	0	0.42
3	VGK	11	2	1.43
3	CGY	13	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2