Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-12-06 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

PHI: 41.0%

COL: 59.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.07

COL: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

PHI

M. Jones

COL

Justus Annunen - 8-4-1 | 0.928 SV% | 2.25 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	50	43	7	86.0%	3.26	1	-3.74
COL	Justus Annunen	32	27	5	84.4%	2.20	1	-2.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	PHI
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.64
1	COL	15	0	0.84
2	PHI	13	0	0.61
2	COL	21	0	0.96
3	PHI	15	1	0.95
3	COL	23	1	1.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 7 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2