Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-12-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 51.5%

TBL: 48.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.91

TBL: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

MTL

J. Allen

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	27	24	3	88.9%	3.29	4	0.29
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	21	2	91.3%	1.95	1	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • MTL at home vs TBL: 4-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.49
1	TBL	10	2	0.91
2	MTL	10	0	0.74
2	TBL	16	0	0.98
3	MTL	9	1	0.71
3	TBL	13	2	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4