Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-12-08 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

VGK: 52.1%

DAL: 47.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.47

DAL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

R. Lehner

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	23	19	4	82.6%	1.64	0	-2.36
DAL	B. Holtby	45	40	5	88.9%	2.70	0	-2.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • VGK at home vs DAL: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	11	0.37
1	DAL	9	0.19
2	VGK	30	1.54
2	DAL	12	0.61
3	VGK	15	0.78
3	DAL	15	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2