Chicago Blackhawks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-12-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.5%

CHI: 47.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.94

CHI: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

MTL

J. Allen

CHI

M. Fleury

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	25	23	2	92.0%	3.06	3	1.06
CHI	M. Fleury	30	30	0	100.0%	1.84	0	1.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs CHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL
2023-12-22	CHI 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	CHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	0	0.53
1	CHI	15	1	0.87
2	MTL	10	0	0.41
2	CHI	14	0	1.05
3	MTL	17	0	0.90
3	CHI	7	2	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1