Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2021-12-09 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 54.3%

BOS: 45.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.44

BOS: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	30	27	3	90.0%	2.13	1	-0.87
BOS	L. Ullmark	43	41	2	95.3%	4.00	1	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs BOS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	EDM 2 - 6 BOS	BOS	BOS
2025-12-18	BOS 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-07	BOS 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-12-19	EDM 3 - 2 BOS	EDM	EDM
2024-03-05	BOS 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	1	1.29
1	BOS	11	0	0.33
2	EDM	19	0	1.15
2	BOS	8	0	0.35
3	EDM	21	0	1.56
3	BOS	19	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2