Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-12-10 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

WSH: 48.3%

PIT: 51.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.12

PIT: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

WSH

I. Samsonov

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	33	29	4	87.9%	5.06	3	1.06
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	29	2	93.5%	2.26	1	0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs PIT: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	0	0.72
1	PIT	13	0	1.04
2	WSH	15	0	0.83
2	PIT	12	0	0.70
3	WSH	15	1	0.71
3	PIT	17	3	3.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2