Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-12-10 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 55.8%

PHI: 44.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.41

PHI: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

VGK

L. Brossoit

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	25	21	4	84.0%	2.54	1	-1.46
PHI	C. Hart	44	41	3	93.2%	3.28	1	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	0	0.68
1	PHI	17	0	0.83
2	VGK	20	0	1.12
2	PHI	12	0	1.10
3	VGK	21	1	1.49
3	PHI	7	1	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1