Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-12-11 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Washington Capitals (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 50.8%

WSH: 49.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.91

WSH: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	45	41	4	91.1%	4.59	2	0.59
WSH	V. Vanecek	33	30	3	90.9%	3.88	1	0.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BUF at home vs WSH: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	WSH
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.85
1	WSH	13	0	0.45
2	BUF	14	0	1.18
2	WSH	17	0	1.10
3	BUF	10	0	0.74
3	WSH	23	0	0.90
4	BUF	2	0	0.18
4	WSH	2	0	0.22
5	BUF	3	1	0.93
5	WSH	3	2	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4