Chicago Blackhawks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-12-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

TOR: 68.9%

CHI: 31.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.61

CHI: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

P. Mrazek

CHI

K. Lankinen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	P. Mrazek	35	31	4	88.6%	2.69	0	-1.31
CHI	K. Lankinen	26	21	5	80.8%	1.97	0	-3.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	TOR 3 - 2 CHI	TOR	TOR
2025-11-15	CHI 3 - 2 TOR	CHI	TOR
2025-02-23	CHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-02	TOR 4 - 1 CHI	TOR	TOR
2023-11-24	CHI 4 - 3 TOR	CHI	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TOR	12	0.82
1	CHI	15	0.78
2	TOR	7	0.48
2	CHI	15	1.18
3	TOR	12	0.66
3	CHI	13	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5