Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-12-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 47.5%

TBL: 52.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.08

TBL: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	25	25	0	100.0%	3.06	1	3.06
TBL	B. Elliott	23	19	4	82.6%	3.75	4	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs TBL: 7-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	9	1	0.56
1	TBL	17	0	1.59
2	OTT	16	2	2.21
2	TBL	12	1	0.81
3	OTT	8	1	0.98
3	TBL	11	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.5