Montreal Canadiens at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions
2021-12-11 • Enterprise Center
St. Louis Blues 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
STL: 51.9%
MTL: 48.1%
Expected Goals
STL: 2.94
MTL: 3.07
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 53%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
STL
C. Lindgren
MTL
J. Allen
| Stat | STL | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | C. Lindgren | 23 | 22 | 1 | 95.7% | 1.65 | 0 | 0.65 |
| MTL | J. Allen | 37 | 33 | 4 | 89.2% | 3.51 | 2 | -0.49 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • STL at home vs MTL: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | STL 2 - 0 MTL | STL | MTL |
| 2025-12-07 | MTL 3 - 4 STL | STL | MTL |
| 2025-03-25 | STL 6 - 1 MTL | STL | STL |
| 2024-10-26 | MTL 5 - 2 STL | MTL | STL |
| 2024-02-11 | MTL 2 - 7 STL | STL | MTL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STL | 13 | 0 | 0.96 |
| 1 | MTL | 10 | 0 | 0.54 |
| 2 | STL | 13 | 1 | 1.27 |
| 2 | MTL | 12 | 0 | 0.43 |
| 3 | STL | 16 | 1 | 1.27 |
| 3 | MTL | 15 | 0 | 0.68 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 51.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
St. Louis Blues 4 - 1 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1
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