Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2021-12-11 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 60.8%

BOS: 39.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.75

BOS: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

CGY

J. Markstrom

BOS

L. Ullmark

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	27	23	4	85.2%	2.00	0	-2.00
BOS	L. Ullmark	42	40	2	95.2%	5.10	4	3.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs BOS: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	BOS 4 - 1 CGY	BOS	BOS
2025-12-29	CGY 2 - 1 BOS	CGY	CGY
2024-12-17	CGY 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	BOS
2024-11-07	BOS 4 - 3 CGY	BOS	BOS
2024-02-22	CGY 3 - 2 BOS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	22	1	1.45
1	BOS	9	0	0.57
2	CGY	20	3	2.22
2	BOS	10	0	0.69
3	CGY	20	0	1.44
3	BOS	13	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9