Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2021-12-11 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 49.7%

DAL: 50.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.51

DAL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

SJS

J. Reimer

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	35	34	1	97.1%	2.69	1	1.69
DAL	B. Holtby	25	23	2	92.0%	2.68	1	0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • SJS at home vs DAL: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	SJS
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	8	0	0.53
1	DAL	21	1	1.38
2	SJS	16	0	1.09
2	DAL	14	0	0.51
3	SJS	14	1	1.07
3	DAL	13	0	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2