Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-12-12 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

VGK: 62.3%

MIN: 37.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.34

MIN: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

VGK

R. Lehner

MIN

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	R. Lehner	27	23	4	85.2%	3.25	2	-0.75
MIN	C. Talbot	36	30	6	83.3%	5.22	8	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • VGK at home vs MIN: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	1	1.14
1	MIN	11	0	0.68
2	VGK	19	5	2.12
2	MIN	22	1	1.87
3	VGK	12	2	1.96
3	MIN	11	1	0.70

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1