Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2021-12-14 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 55.8%

VGK: 44.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.49

VGK: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	21	4	84.0%	2.20	1	-1.80
VGK	R. Lehner	24	23	1	95.8%	1.54	1	0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BOS at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	BOS 4 - 3 VGK	BOS	VGK
2025-10-16	VGK 6 - 5 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-03-20	VGK 5 - 1 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-02-08	BOS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-02-29	BOS 5 - 4 VGK	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	9	0	0.65
1	VGK	15	0	0.76
2	BOS	16	0	0.42
2	VGK	10	0	0.39
3	BOS	12	1	0.47
3	VGK	14	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1