Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-12-14 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Los Angeles Kings (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 50.4%

LAK: 49.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.34

LAK: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

LAK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	30	28	2	93.3%	2.27	0	0.27
LAK	J. Quick	30	27	3	90.0%	3.90	2	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs LAK: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	1.00
1	LAK	14	0	0.98
2	TBL	18	1	1.40
2	LAK	7	0	0.38
3	TBL	10	1	0.98
3	LAK	13	0	0.70
4	TBL	3	0	0.52
4	LAK	2	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2