Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-12-14 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

PIT: 70.9%

MTL: 29.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 4.32

MTL: 2.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	28	2	93.3%	2.16	1	0.16
MTL	J. Allen	31	26	5	83.9%	2.86	1	-2.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	1	0.91
1	MTL	10	0	0.51
2	PIT	23	0	1.56
2	MTL	10	0	0.46
3	PIT	7	0	0.39
3	MTL	18	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 4.3 - 2.2