St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-12-14 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 54.0%

STL: 46.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.37

STL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

STL

C. Lindgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	25	4	86.2%	2.57	0	-1.43
STL	C. Lindgren	34	33	1	97.1%	2.49	0	1.49

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs STL: 8-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	STL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL
2025-03-02	DAL 6 - 3 STL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	DAL	11	0.74
1	STL	13	0.90
2	DAL	21	1.05
2	STL	13	0.93
3	DAL	14	0.70
3	STL	11	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1