Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2021-12-14 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 41.3%
TOR: 58.7%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.02
TOR: 3.23
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
M. Koskinen
TOR
J. Campbell
| Stat | EDM | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | M. Koskinen | 25 | 20 | 5 | 80.0% | 3.50 | 3 | -1.50 |
| TOR | J. Campbell | 36 | 35 | 1 | 97.2% | 3.57 | 2 | 2.57 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs TOR: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | EDM 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | EDM |
| 2025-12-13 | TOR 3 - 6 EDM | EDM | EDM |
| 2025-02-01 | EDM 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | EDM |
| 2024-11-16 | TOR 4 - 3 EDM | TOR | EDM |
| 2024-03-23 | TOR 6 - 3 EDM | TOR | EDM |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EDM | 17 | 1 | 1.62 |
| 1 | TOR | 17 | 2 | 1.40 |
| 2 | EDM | 18 | 1 | 1.37 |
| 2 | TOR | 8 | 1 | 0.97 |
| 3 | EDM | 11 | 0 | 0.58 |
| 3 | TOR | 12 | 0 | 1.12 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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