Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2021-12-16 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

TBL: 55.5%

OTT: 44.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.13

OTT: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	25	1	96.2%	2.48	1	1.48
OTT	Anton Forsberg	27	25	2	92.6%	4.13	1	2.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs OTT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	OTT 6 - 2 TBL	OTT	OTT
2026-03-28	TBL 4 - 2 OTT	TBL	TBL
2025-10-09	TBL 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-04-03	OTT 2 - 1 TBL	OTT	TBL
2025-02-06	TBL 5 - 1 OTT	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	0	0.83
1	OTT	10	1	0.55
2	TBL	20	0	1.42
2	OTT	15	0	1.24
3	TBL	15	1	1.88
3	OTT	12	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1