Boston Bruins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2021-12-16 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 1 Boston Bruins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 57.2%
BOS: 42.8%
Expected Goals
NYI: 2.99
BOS: 2.90
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA
BOS
L. Ullmark
| Stat | NYI | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.000 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 0.00 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | Semyon Varlamov | 41 | 40 | 1 | 97.6% | 3.39 | 2 | 2.39 |
| BOS | L. Ullmark | 28 | 25 | 3 | 89.3% | 4.42 | 3 | 1.42 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NYI at home vs BOS: 3-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | NYI 1 - 3 BOS | BOS | NYI |
| 2025-11-04 | NYI 3 - 4 BOS | BOS | NYI |
| 2025-10-28 | BOS 5 - 2 NYI | BOS | NYI |
| 2025-02-27 | BOS 1 - 2 NYI | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-05 | BOS 4 - 5 NYI | NYI | NYI |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYI | 11 | 0 | 1.02 |
| 1 | BOS | 12 | 0 | 0.55 |
| 2 | NYI | 15 | 1 | 1.43 |
| 2 | BOS | 24 | 1 | 1.39 |
| 3 | NYI | 12 | 2 | 1.98 |
| 3 | BOS | 15 | 1 | 1.45 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 57.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 1 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.0 - 2.9
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