Buffalo Sabres at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2021-12-16 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 54.7%

BUF: 45.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.00

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

MIN

C. Talbot

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	C. Talbot	42	39	3	92.9%	4.39	2	1.39
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	32	2	94.1%	3.32	1	1.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-17	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	10	0	0.49
1	BUF	26	1	1.76
2	MIN	19	1	1.58
2	BUF	8	0	0.45
3	MIN	15	0	0.76
3	BUF	14	0	0.79
4	MIN	4	0	0.27
4	BUF	3	0	0.35
5	MIN	3	0	0.21
5	BUF	3	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0