Vegas Golden Knights at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2021-12-17 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 52.1%

VGK: 47.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.74

VGK: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 52%

NYR

A. Georgiev

VGK

L. Brossoit

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	A. Georgiev	33	30	3	90.9%	4.60	5	1.60
VGK	L. Brossoit	32	30	2	93.8%	3.45	2	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	NYR 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-18	VGK 3 - 2 NYR	VGK	VGK
2025-02-02	NYR 4 - 2 VGK	NYR	VGK
2025-01-11	VGK 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	VGK
2024-01-26	NYR 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	0	0.80
1	VGK	17	2	1.62
2	NYR	17	2	1.47
2	VGK	10	0	0.58
3	NYR	4	0	0.27
3	VGK	15	1	0.85
4	NYR	9	0	0.71
4	VGK	5	1	0.68
5	NYR	3	0	0.21
5	VGK	3	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.7 - 3.2