Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-12-17 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

Win Probability

PIT: 70.1%

BUF: 29.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.31

BUF: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

BUF

M. Subban

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	21	19	2	90.5%	1.21	0	-0.79
BUF	M. Subban	48	45	3	93.8%	4.08	1	1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs BUF: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	23	1	2.03
1	BUF	6	0	0.19
2	PIT	18	0	1.05
2	BUF	13	0	0.63
3	PIT	21	0	0.85
3	BUF	9	0	0.24
4	PIT	3	0	0.14
4	BUF	2	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7