Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2021-12-17 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 53.3%

WSH: 46.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.92

WSH: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WSH

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	39	34	5	87.2%	4.99	3	-0.01
WSH	V. Vanecek	42	40	2	95.2%	4.64	0	2.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	9	0	0.62
1	WSH	17	0	1.03
2	WPG	24	0	2.49
2	WSH	11	0	0.93
3	WPG	18	0	1.54
3	WSH	20	3	3.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9