Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-04-24 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

MTL: 43.9%

BOS: 56.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.85

BOS: 3.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	42	37	5	88.1%	3.04	1	-1.96
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	26	23	3	88.5%	1.98	0	-1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • MTL at home vs BOS: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.28
1	BOS	22	0	1.19
2	MTL	13	0	0.90
2	BOS	17	0	0.61
3	MTL	18	0	0.79
3	BOS	12	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.8 - 4.0