New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-12-18 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 45.7%

NJD: 54.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.03

NJD: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

T. Greiss

NJD

A. Schmid

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	T. Greiss	33	31	2	93.9%	2.23	0	0.23
NJD	A. Schmid	30	25	5	83.3%	2.78	2	-2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • DET at home vs NJD: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DET 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-03-08	NJD 0 - 3 DET	DET	NJD
2025-11-24	NJD 4 - 3 DET	NJD	NJD
2025-04-16	NJD 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET
2024-11-29	DET 4 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	12	1	0.96
1	NJD	17	0	0.83
2	DET	18	0	1.13
2	NJD	13	0	0.69
3	DET	9	1	0.69
3	NJD	15	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3