Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-12-18 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators (OT)

Win Probability

PHI: 50.4%

OTT: 49.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.52

OTT: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

PHI

M. Jones

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	31	28	3	90.3%	2.58	1	-0.42
OTT	Anton Forsberg	38	34	4	89.5%	2.84	0	-1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs OTT: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	21	0	1.20
1	OTT	10	0	0.58
2	PHI	18	0	1.19
2	OTT	15	0	1.01
3	PHI	8	0	0.24
3	OTT	16	1	1.00
4	PHI	2	0	0.21
4	OTT	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1