Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2022-02-10 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 48.9%

TBL: 51.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.31

TBL: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

COL

D. Kuemper

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	38	36	2	94.7%	3.82	3	1.82
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	47	44	3	93.6%	2.79	1	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • COL at home vs TBL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	TBL 4 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2025-11-04	COL 3 - 2 TBL	COL	COL
2024-11-25	TBL 8 - 2 COL	TBL	COL
2024-10-30	COL 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	COL
2024-02-15	TBL 6 - 3 COL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	29	1	1.65
1	TBL	13	1	1.30
2	COL	14	0	0.84
2	TBL	14	1	1.34
3	COL	12	0	0.30
3	TBL	19	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0