Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-02-12 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 45.6%

TOR: 54.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.87

TOR: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

TOR

P. Mrazek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	53	51	2	96.2%	5.56	4	3.56
TOR	P. Mrazek	24	21	3	87.5%	2.83	2	-0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VAN at home vs TOR: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	VAN
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	13	1	0.89
1	TOR	20	0	1.19
2	VAN	12	0	0.86
2	TOR	31	2	2.39
3	VAN	11	1	1.08
3	TOR	22	2	1.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2