Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2021-12-19 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 51.6%

VGK: 48.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.87

VGK: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

VGK

R. Lehner

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	37	32	5	86.5%	4.27	3	-0.73
VGK	R. Lehner	33	30	3	90.9%	3.20	1	0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYI at home vs VGK: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	10	0	0.79
1	VGK	13	0	0.66
2	NYI	11	0	0.62
2	VGK	15	1	1.06
3	NYI	9	0	0.85
3	VGK	12	0	0.73
4	NYI	7	1	0.80
4	VGK	2	0	0.09
5	NYI	2	0	0.14
5	VGK	3	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0