Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-02-10 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 61.3%

CBJ: 38.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.23

CBJ: 1.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 44%

BUF

D. Tokarski

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	34	30	4	88.2%	1.81	0	-2.19
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	27	24	3	88.9%	2.21	0	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs CBJ: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	BUF 5 - 0 CBJ	BUF	CBJ
2026-01-03	CBJ 5 - 1 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-10-28	BUF 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-10	CBJ 3 - 2 BUF	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-04	BUF 3 - 2 CBJ	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	BUF	12	0.60
1	CBJ	20	0.53
2	BUF	17	0.96
2	CBJ	18	0.75
3	BUF	12	0.65
3	CBJ	10	0.51
4	BUF	0	0.00
4	CBJ	1	0.02

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.2 - 2.0