Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2022-02-23 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 44.7%
COL: 55.3%
Expected Goals
DET: 2.99
COL: 3.01
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
T. Greiss
COL
P. Francouz
| Stat | DET | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | T. Greiss | 31 | 26 | 5 | 83.9% | 4.09 | 2 | -0.91 |
| COL | P. Francouz | 34 | 32 | 2 | 94.1% | 3.00 | 0 | 1.00 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • DET at home vs COL: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | COL 0 - 2 DET | DET | COL |
| 2026-01-31 | DET 0 - 5 COL | COL | COL |
| 2025-03-25 | COL 5 - 2 DET | COL | COL |
| 2024-12-07 | DET 1 - 2 COL | COL | COL |
| 2024-03-06 | COL 7 - 2 DET | COL | COL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 13 | 0 | 0.72 |
| 1 | COL | 18 | 0 | 0.98 |
| 2 | DET | 17 | 0 | 1.02 |
| 2 | COL | 18 | 0 | 1.01 |
| 3 | DET | 20 | 0 | 1.26 |
| 3 | COL | 13 | 2 | 2.10 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.0 - 3.0
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