Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-12-20 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 7 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 46.0%

MIN: 54.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.04

MIN: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	19	4	82.6%	2.24	0	-1.76
MIN	C. Talbot	29	22	7	75.9%	3.91	4	-3.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DAL at home vs MIN: 9-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	1	1.05
1	MIN	10	0	0.56
2	DAL	16	1	1.26
2	MIN	11	0	0.76
3	DAL	15	2	1.60
3	MIN	11	0	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 7 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2