Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-02-17 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

PHI: 43.8%

WSH: 56.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.76

WSH: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

PHI

M. Jones

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	M. Jones	25	20	5	80.0%	2.80	3	-2.20
WSH	I. Samsonov	33	30	3	90.9%	2.77	1	-0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PHI at home vs WSH: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	WSH 6 - 4 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-03-11	PHI 4 - 1 WSH	PHI	PHI
2026-02-25	WSH 3 - 1 PHI	WSH	WSH
2026-02-03	PHI 4 - 2 WSH	PHI	PHI
2025-03-20	WSH 3 - 2 PHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	0	0.32
1	WSH	12	0	0.83
2	PHI	16	0	1.18
2	WSH	8	0	0.56
3	PHI	13	1	1.27
3	WSH	12	3	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1