New Jersey Devils at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-02-24 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 6 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 58.1%

NJD: 41.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.01

NJD: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	36	30	6	83.3%	2.82	2	-3.18
NJD	Nico Daws	38	37	1	97.4%	3.17	1	2.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • PIT at home vs NJD: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	NJD
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	17	0	1.24
1	NJD	18	0	0.90
2	PIT	18	1	1.49
2	NJD	6	1	0.80
3	PIT	14	0	0.44
3	NJD	16	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 6 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4