Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-12-21 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

VGK: 43.3%

TBL: 56.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.17

TBL: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

VGK

L. Brossoit

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	19	15	4	78.9%	1.99	0	-2.01
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	41	38	3	92.7%	2.89	0	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • VGK at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	19	1.11
1	TBL	9	0.53
2	VGK	13	0.68
2	TBL	13	0.96
3	VGK	15	1.10
3	TBL	9	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.7