Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2022-04-27 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

NYR: 45.4%

MTL: 54.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.03

MTL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYR

A. Georgiev

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	A. Georgiev	23	19	4	82.6%	2.10	1	-1.90
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	24	3	88.9%	2.93	3	-0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYR at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	MTL
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	11	0	0.66
1	MTL	8	0	0.50
2	NYR	12	1	1.01
2	MTL	9	1	0.99
3	NYR	13	2	1.26
3	MTL	14	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2