Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-02-11 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 49.0%

WPG: 51.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.34

WPG: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	34	31	3	91.2%	2.80	1	-0.20
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	31	4	88.6%	4.05	2	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs WPG: 10-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.92
1	WPG	17	1	1.12
2	DAL	19	1	1.66
2	WPG	10	0	0.55
3	DAL	15	1	1.02
3	WPG	10	0	0.80
4	DAL	3	0	0.46
4	WPG	3	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2