St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-02-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 63.7%

STL: 36.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.96

STL: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

TOR

J. Campbell

STL

V. Husso

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	34	28	6	82.4%	3.09	1	-2.91
STL	V. Husso	37	34	3	91.9%	3.05	0	0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	STL 5 - 1 TOR	STL	STL
2025-11-18	TOR 3 - 2 STL	TOR	STL
2024-11-02	STL 4 - 2 TOR	STL	TOR
2024-10-24	TOR 1 - 5 STL	STL	TOR
2024-02-19	STL 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	12	0	0.80
1	STL	12	0	0.79
2	TOR	16	0	1.02
2	STL	13	0	0.62
3	TOR	23	0	1.23
3	STL	13	1	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 4.0 - 2.6